Shiny-object stocks of the S&P 500 index

Don’t be swayed by a cherry-picked depiction of history.

Many market commentators agree there is a clear discussion about the performance comparison between the S&P 500 and U.S. small-cap value stocks. That’s why many investors have been lured by the shiny-object stocks of the S&P 500 index.

Their recent performance since 2010 has been quite impressive. The large-cap S&P has outperformed US small-cap value stocks by an annualised 1.7 percentage points. However, this attractive period for the S&P was quickly followed by the “lost decade” (January 2000–December 2009), when the index returned -0.9%, lagging more than 13 percentage points behind US small-cap value stocks.

The importance of the entire data history

It is crucial to use the entire data history to gain perspective. Since June 1927, US small-cap value stocks have outperformed the S&P, 13.1% to 10.1%. The complete sample also portrays the subperiods as anomalies for the S&P 500. Outperforming small-cap value stocks over 14 years and returning less than zero over ten years are both unlikely expectations for the long term.

US small cap

The consistency of small-cap value stocks

In contrast to the S&P 500, small-cap value stocks have shown more consistency in these subperiods. This illustrates the importance of looking at the entire picture rather than being swayed by a cherry-picked depiction of history.

In conclusion, making informed decisions in stock investment requires comprehensive information. Avoid the trap of cherry-picking and ensure you have the complete history before moving. Therefore, investors should be mindful of these trends when making investment decisions.

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