Even if you have no interest in Black Friday deals, this time of year can still affect your investments. As the festive season begins, it helps to understand what usually happens in the markets and why. We have pulled together the key points you need to know.
This is not about whether the discounts are worth it. Instead, we are looking at how the Black Friday sales period can influence your investment portfolio and why the impact is often short-lived.
Read here what Aaron McAuley, Certified Financial Planner™ (CFP) and Chartered Wealth Manager (CWM) had to say below.
What is Black Friday?
Most people know Black Friday as the start of the Christmas shopping rush. What began as a single day of sales has grown into a full season of promotions. Many retailers now run early offers throughout November, followed by Cyber Monday and even longer online deals.
Spending keeps rising each year. In the United Kingdom, consumers are expected to once again spend billions across the Black Friday and Cyber Monday period in 2025¹. Online retailers continue to see higher traffic and increased spending as more of us shop digitally.
How Black Friday Affects the Stock Market
Black Friday creates a lot of excitement, especially in retail and e-commerce. This can cause short-term movements in share prices for companies that rely heavily on festive trading.
For example, you may see the share price of a major retailer rise briefly if early sales figures look strong. But this usually does not last. A busy shopping weekend does not guarantee strong long-term performance.
Market Watch looked at how the S&P Retail Select Industry Index has behaved since 1999 and found an interesting pattern. When the index has risen around Black Friday, the rest of the fourth quarter has often been weaker. When it has fallen, the final part of the year has often been stronger.²
This does not mean the pattern will always repeat. Past performance is never a reliable guide. It simply shows how easily investors can overreact. We expect good news at this time of year and can be disappointed when results are not as strong as hoped. The reverse is also true. If expectations are low, even modest results can push markets up.
Seasonal Trends and Their Influence
Black Friday is just one example of how different points in the year can affect the market. Summer often sees fewer traders active, which can lead to sharper movements in prices. Towards the end of the year, investors may rebalance their portfolios and carry out tax planning, which increases trading volumes.³
Prices also move based on what investors expect to happen rather than what is happening at that exact moment. These seasonal patterns are normal. They may create noise, but they should not form the basis of a long-term investment decision.
What Should Investors Do?
Unless you are a day trader, the ups and downs around Black Friday should be treated as part of the normal investment journey. A diversified portfolio spreads your investment across many sectors, so short-term changes in retail have a limited effect.
Some industries, such as healthcare, property and energy, are barely affected by Black Friday at all. Even within retail, any impact tends to fade quickly.
Short-term movements are expected. They should not distract you from the long-term plan that matters most.
Keeping Perspective
Every investment journey will have busy periods and quiet periods. Black Friday is simply one of those moments that attracts attention. If the headlines make you feel uneasy, remind yourself of your long-term goals. Why are you investing? What are you working towards?
Focusing on these points helps to keep market noise in perspective.
Working with an Evidence Based Planner
If you find the Black Friday headlines confusing or worrying, it may help to lean on an Evidence Based approach.
At GSB, we do not try to guess which retailers will do well on the day or how markets might react in the short term. Evidence shows that prices react quickly to new information and that guessing short-term movements rarely works.⁴
Instead, we follow a clear, disciplined process. We focus on global diversification, long-term returns and staying invested through all types of market conditions. This removes the need to make emotional decisions around events such as Black Friday.
Our role is to keep your portfolio aligned with your goals, your risk level and your long-term plan. We rely on evidence, not headlines.
If you want reassurance or a clearer understanding of how your investments are positioned, contact GSB today. We are here to help you stay on track throughout the year, not just during Black Friday.
Get in touch
Contact GSB today if you would like to discuss any of these matters with our in-house team.
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Sources
- Statista, UK Black Friday Retail Spending Outlook (2025 forecast)
- MarketWatch Analysis, S&P Retail Select Industry Index Performance Trends
- CFA Institute Research Commentary on Seasonality in Equity Markets
- Dimensional Fund Advisors, “The Power of Market Prices” Study on Market Efficiency
Disclaimer
This article is provided for information purposes only and is intended for the general public. It does not constitute financial, investment, tax or legal advice. No action should be taken based solely on the content of this publication. Investments can go down as well as up, and you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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