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“Guaranteed” returns? Here’s what to ask first

I have been a financial planner in Dubai since 2019, and in that time I’ve seen the same story play out more than once. Someone they trust mentions an investment paying a steady, “guaranteed” return, well above anything their bank offers. The materials are polished, the names attached to it are impressive and the first payments land on schedule.

Then, one day, they don’t.

Investment fraud is not a niche problem. In the UK, people lost £221.5 million to investment scams in 2025, up 40% on the year before, according to UK Finance. That figure only includes losses reported through UK banks, so the true cost is likely to be far higher. Investment scams now make up more than a third of all money lost to scams where victims are tricked into sending the money themselves. Here in the UAE, Dubai Police warned residents in April 2026 about a rise in fake investment schemes promoted online, many promising quick, guaranteed returns.

The people caught out are rarely naive. They’re often successful, busy and used to trusting their own judgement. Knowing what to look for is the best protection.

Written by Craig Ritchie, Senior Partner at GSB

How people get drawn in

  • The introduction feels personal. Opportunities often arrive through friends, colleagues, social media or salespeople. When the introduction comes from someone you know, it’s natural to lower your guard.
  • The return is just believable enough. It’s rarely 50% a year. More often it’s 8% or 10%: high enough to tempt, low enough to sound plausible.
  • The packaging does the selling. A prestigious address, glossy materials and high-profile associations create an impression of legitimacy. None of them tell you where your money actually goes.
  • Early payments build trust. Reliable returns in the first months turn doubt into confidence. Investors often put more in and introduce friends. In fraudulent schemes, those new deposits can be what fund earlier investors’ payouts.
  • Problems tend to surface slowly, then suddenly. Delays come first, then explanations about “market conditions”, then silence.

Bernie Madoff, who ran the largest Ponzi scheme in history, was known not for spectacular returns but for steady, unremarkable ones, month after month, for decades. Consistency on its own is not proof of legitimacy.

What I’d tell any client to watch for

  • Fixed, double-digit “guaranteed” returns. Higher returns come with higher risk. A guarantee is only as strong as the organisation giving it, so ask who stands behind it and what happens if they can’t pay.
  • An unclear explanation of how the money is made. If you can’t explain the investment to a friend in two sentences, ask more questions.
  • Urgency and referral incentives. “Limited places”, tight deadlines and rewards for introducing others are designed to speed up your decision.
  • Structures spread across multiple jurisdictions. Complexity can be legitimate, but it can also make it harder to see who is accountable.
  • Credibility borrowed from famous names, high-profile events or an office address. These are marketing decisions, not regulatory endorsements.

 

The one question to always ask:

“If this fails, who holds my money, and what protects me?”

The regulation trap

This is where well-informed investors are most often caught out.

  • A firm can be regulated while the product isn’t. In the UK, London Capital & Finance was authorised by the FCA, but the “mini-bonds” it sold, offering returns of up to 8% a year, were not regulated products. When the firm entered administration in 2019, more than 11,000 people had invested around £237 million.
  • A licence may only cover certain activities, such as advice or introductions, and not managing or holding client money. Always check the specific permissions listed on the register, not just the firm’s name.
  • Investment vehicles spread across several jurisdictions can make it unclear which regulator, if any, is responsible if things go wrong.
  • Check for past problems. Search regulator warning lists and enforcement notices for alerts or fines involving the firm and the people running it.

Doing the checks

  • Look the firm up on the right register. In the UAE, this depends on where the firm operates: the DFSA in the DIFC, the FSRA in ADGM, or onshore the Capital Market Authority (formerly the SCA) or the Central Bank of the UAE. For UK firms, use the FCA Register and the FCA Warning List.
  • Go to the register directly. Type the regulator’s web address yourself rather than clicking a link you’ve been sent. In February 2025, the DFSA warned that fraudsters had cloned its public register, creating a near-identical website listing firms that falsely claimed to be authorised. If the web address doesn’t begin with dfsa.ae, it isn’t genuine.
  • Check the regulatory statement. Regulated firms are generally required to state who regulates them. Verify that statement independently, as details can be copied.
  • Ask for the documents. Request the offering documents, audited accounts and custodian statements, and note the firm’s regulatory reference number.
  • Find out who holds your assets. An independent custodian, typically a large bank, holds client assets separately from the firm managing them. If no one can clearly tell you who the custodian is, don’t proceed until they can.

If something has gone wrong

  • Recognise the early warning signs: delayed payments, vague updates and explanations that blame the markets.
  • Don’t add any more money, and keep every record: emails, messages, statements and transfer receipts.
  • Seek professional help. Speak to a lawyer and contact the relevant regulator and the police. In Dubai, suspicious investment activity can be reported through the eCrime platform or by calling 901 for non-emergencies.
  • Be cautious of anyone offering to recover your money. Unsolicited recovery offers can be scams in their own right. In 2025, 17% of scams reported to the FCA mentioned a “recovery room”, where fraudsters target people who have already lost money.

What to remember

Social media, polished marketing and high-profile associations can make an opportunity feel credible very quickly. A friend receiving regular returns doesn’t, on its own, mean an investment is legitimate.

If you take one thing from this article, on-time payments are not proof of safety. Check the structure, understand the underlying investments and how they generate the return being promised, and before you commit, get a second opinion from an independent, regulated professional.

Want a second opinion?

If you’ve been offered an investment and something doesn’t feel right, or you’d simply like someone to look over the details, we’re happy to help.

Contact us

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Disclaimer:

This article is for general information and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal or tax advice. It does not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives or needs. You should seek professional advice before making any investment decision.

The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise, and you may get back less than you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

GSB is a pending trademark of GSB Capital, which is registered with the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), licence no. CL4377, and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) under licence no. F006321. The registered address is Office 901, Floor 9, West Wing, The Gate, Dubai International Financial Centre, PO Box 938542, Dubai, UAE. In respect of those activities GSB performs in or from the DIFC, the law applicable to these activities is that of the DIFC.